Current Portfolio Positions (+19.72 YTD; +100.25% 2025)
CLX – The Clorox Company is trading above the 200-day EMA after breaking out of a falling wedge pattern (green). The measured move from the wedge breakout projects to $138.49. A sustained move above $124.74 resistance targets $152.82. This should be viewed as a counter-trend rally until the structure shifts with a decisive break above $124.74. A close back below the 200-day EMA would trigger a stop-loss.
CNQ – Canadian Natural Resources Limited has broken out of a trading range and is moving toward the target near $66. A move back into the prior range would trigger a stop-loss.
RIG – Transocean Ltd. is breaking out on high volume with a target near $10.49. This pattern could develop into a cup and handle, so any pullback below $6.23 would trigger a stop-loss.
NBR – Nabors Industries Ltd. has broken out above resistance at $69.76. The target is $115. Although I am not a fan of V-shaped bottoms, the stock continues to grind higher, so I will monitor price action for signs of weakness. A cross of the 8-day EMA (yellow) below the 21-day EMA (teal), bearish candles, or a decline to the white line will all be used as exit signals.
TTE – TotalEnergies SE is breaking out above resistance at $74.94 and continuing its uptrend. The measured move target is near $97.10. A move back below $74.94 would trigger a stop-loss.
REPYY – Repsol is closing in on its target near $19.19. Once the target is reached, I will monitor price action for signs of strength or weakness to determine profit-taking.
CVE – Cenovus Energy Inc. technically broke above $20.97 and is on its way to its first target at $32.40. Fundamentally, CVE remains a buy provided three conditions are met: (1) WTI is currently $66.48; (2) the differential is near $12.50; and (3) further confirmation is expected in April. (Fundamentals source: The Bottom-Up Bulletin, Jan. 9, “Putting the Oil Puzzle Together: Why CVE Sits at the Center.”)
SM – SM Energy Company reached its target and is sitting just above the 200-day EMA. Ideally, I would like to see price consolidate above the EMA. The primary trend remains down, so I want to see evidence that the counter-trend rally is strengthening and not going to roll over and continue its downtrend.
CRC – California Resources Corporation broke above the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and is moving higher. The target is $86.
FCX – Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is moving higher after breaking out of a multi-year range. The first target is $80. $60 is support; a move back below that level may constitute a stop-loss.
OXY – Occidental Petroleum Corp. broke out of a roughly 10-month range on strong volume. The target is $60. A move back into the prior range would trigger a stop-loss.
SNDK – SanDisk Corp. is trading within a range but, on a lower time frame, has put in a higher low and broken a secondary downtrend within that range. Price is also sitting just below Ptrans (the option strike where net gamma turns positive and remains positive above that level; above Ptrans, market-maker buying pressure can begin to accelerate price higher). The target is PGex (the strike containing the highest positive gamma in the structure), which is $700. I am using a swing-trade strategy to capture dealer-driven upside expansion toward positive gamma concentration. It is a strategy that has had close to an 80% success rate so far this year.
AAOI – Applied Optoelectronics is a similar options play to SNDK. PTrans is $54 and PGex is $60.
AA – Alcoa Corp. is a breakout-anticipation play, with a move above $65.48 confirming the breakout. Similar to copper, aluminum prices are moving higher.
Sorry to cut it short — Substack says I’ve reached my post-length limit.